# Confidence intervals

    library(ameras)
    #> Loading required package: nimble
    #> nimble version 1.4.2 is loaded.
    #> For more information on NIMBLE and a User Manual,
    #> please visit https://R-nimble.org.
    #>
    #> Attaching package: 'nimble'
    #> The following object is masked from 'package:stats':
    #>
    #>     simulate
    #> The following object is masked from 'package:base':
    #>
    #>     declare

# Introduction

To compute confidence intervals, first fit the model using `ameras`, then use the `confint` method to attach confidence intervals. Several types of confidence intervals are supported, which should be supplied to the `type` argument of `confint`, see below. When the fitted object contains at least one of `RC`, `ERC`, and `MCML` and at least one of `FMA` and `BMA`, `type` should be a vector of length 2 with one interval type for `RC`, `ERC` and `MCML` and one for `FMA` and `BMA`.

# Regression calibration, extended regression calibration, and Monte Carlo maximum likelihood

For (extended) regression calibration and Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, Wald and profile likelihood intervals can be obtained. When a parameter transformation \(\mathbf\theta = h(\mathbf\eta)\) is used, `type="wald.transformed"` yields the CI at significance level \(\alpha\) of \(h(\mathbf\eta \pm z_{1-\alpha/2} \mathbf V)\) where \(z_{1-\alpha/2}\) is the \(1-\alpha/2\)-quantile of the standard normal distribution and \(\mathbf V\) is the vector of standard deviations estimated using the inverse Hessian matrix (returned by `optim`), and `type="wald.orig"` uses the delta method to obtain the CI \(h(\mathbf\eta)\pm z_{1-\alpha/2} \mathbf V_*\) where \(\mathbf V_*\) is the vector of standard deviations estimated using \(J H^{-1} J^T\) with \(J\) the Jacobian of the transformation (obtained with `transform.jacobian`) and \(H\) is the Hessian. When no transformation is used, `type="wald.orig"` should be used. The third option is `type="proflik"`, which uses the profile likelihood to compute confidence bounds. For this, the profile log (partial) likelihood for parameter \(\theta_p\) is defined as \[ PL_p (\theta_p^*) = \max_{\mathbf\theta: \theta_p = \theta_p^*} \ell (\mathbf \theta), \] where \(\ell\) is the log (partial) likelihood. Next, profile confidence intervals \((\theta_p^l, \theta_p^h)\) are obtained for parameter \(\theta_p\) at significance level \(\alpha\) by solving \(-2 \{PL_p(\theta_p^*) - \ell(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}})\}=\chi^2_{1,1-\alpha}\) using the bisection method, with \(\hat{\mathbf{\theta}}\) the maximum likelihood estimate. Note that profile likelihoods are more computationally intensive to obtain. For this reason, `confint` offers the option to only determine them for the exposure-related parameters, which is the default setting. To obtain profile likelihood intervals for all parameters, use `parm = "all"`.

To illustrate, we determine the three types of confidence intervals for a regression calibration analysis using the example data, using a linear excess relative risk model with the default exponential transformation (see Parameter transformations). For subgroup-specific intervals in models with effect modifiers, fit subgroup-specific dose coefficients with `modifier = ~ 0 + M` or `modifier = ~ M - 1`; see Effect modification.

    data(data, package="ameras")
    dosevars <- paste0("V", 1:10)
    fit.ameras <- ameras(Y.binomial~dose(V1:V10, model="ERR")+X1+X2, data=data,
                                family="binomial", methods=c("RC"))
    #> Fitting RC

    fit.ameras.waldorig <- confint(fit.ameras, type="wald.orig")
    #> RC confidence intervals:
    #>
    #>               lower   upper
    #> (Intercept) -1.2363 -0.8918
    #> X1           0.2914  0.5904
    #> X2          -0.5230 -0.1489
    #> dose         0.5663  1.1353
    fit.ameras.waldtransformed <- confint(fit.ameras, type="wald.transformed")
    #> RC confidence intervals:
    #>
    #>               lower   upper
    #> (Intercept) -1.2363 -0.8918
    #> X1           0.2914  0.5904
    #> X2          -0.5230 -0.1489
    #> dose         0.6050  1.1827
    fit.ameras.proflik <- confint(fit.ameras, type="proflik", parm="all")
    #> Obtaining profile likelihood CI for (Intercept)
    #> Obtaining profile likelihood CI for X1
    #> Obtaining profile likelihood CI for X2
    #> Obtaining profile likelihood CI for dose
    #> RC confidence intervals:
    #>
    #>               lower   upper
    #> (Intercept) -1.2391 -0.8971
    #> X1           0.2908  0.5917
    #> X2          -0.5256 -0.1490
    #> dose         0.6009  1.1784

    summary(fit.ameras.waldorig)
    #> Call:
    #> ameras(formula = Y.binomial ~ dose(V1:V10, model = "ERR") + X1 +
    #>     X2, data = data, family = "binomial", methods = c("RC"))
    #>
    #> Rows: 3000
    #>
    #> Total CPU runtime: 0.2 seconds
    #>
    #> CPU runtime in seconds by method:
    #>
    #>  Method   Fit  CI Total
    #>      RC 0.181 0.0 0.181
    #>
    #> Summary of coefficients by method:
    #>
    #>  Method        Term Estimate      SE CI.lower CI.upper
    #>      RC (Intercept)  -1.0641 0.08788  -1.2363  -0.8918
    #>      RC          X1   0.4409 0.07628   0.2914   0.5904
    #>      RC          X2  -0.3360 0.09544  -0.5230  -0.1489
    #>      RC        dose   0.8508 0.14517   0.5663   1.1353
    summary(fit.ameras.waldtransformed)
    #> Call:
    #> ameras(formula = Y.binomial ~ dose(V1:V10, model = "ERR") + X1 +
    #>     X2, data = data, family = "binomial", methods = c("RC"))
    #>
    #> Rows: 3000
    #>
    #> Total CPU runtime: 0.2 seconds
    #>
    #> CPU runtime in seconds by method:
    #>
    #>  Method   Fit  CI Total
    #>      RC 0.181 0.0 0.181
    #>
    #> Summary of coefficients by method:
    #>
    #>  Method        Term Estimate      SE CI.lower CI.upper
    #>      RC (Intercept)  -1.0641 0.08788  -1.2363  -0.8918
    #>      RC          X1   0.4409 0.07628   0.2914   0.5904
    #>      RC          X2  -0.3360 0.09544  -0.5230  -0.1489
    #>      RC        dose   0.8508 0.14517   0.6050   1.1827
    summary(fit.ameras.proflik)
    #> Call:
    #> ameras(formula = Y.binomial ~ dose(V1:V10, model = "ERR") + X1 +
    #>     X2, data = data, family = "binomial", methods = c("RC"))
    #>
    #> Rows: 3000
    #>
    #> Total CPU runtime: 1 seconds
    #>
    #> CPU runtime in seconds by method:
    #>
    #>  Method   Fit    CI Total
    #>      RC 0.181 0.858 1.039
    #>
    #> Summary of coefficients by method:
    #>
    #>  Method        Term Estimate      SE CI.lower CI.upper
    #>      RC (Intercept)  -1.0641 0.08788  -1.2391  -0.8971
    #>      RC          X1   0.4409 0.07628   0.2908   0.5917
    #>      RC          X2  -0.3360 0.09544  -0.5256  -0.1490
    #>      RC        dose   0.8508 0.14517   0.6009   1.1784

# Frequentist and Bayesian model averaging

For frequentist and Bayesian model averaging methods, the options are `percentile` which uses equal-tailed quantiles, and `hpd` which computes highest posterior density intervals using `HPDinterval` from the `coda` package, using either the FMA samples or Bayesian posterior samples.

Again, we use the example data to illustrate.

    set.seed(123)
    fit.ameras2 <- ameras(Y.binomial~dose(V1:V10, model="ERR")+X1+X2, data=data,
                                family="binomial", methods=c("FMA"))
    #> Fitting FMA

    fit.ameras.hpd <- confint(fit.ameras2, type="hpd")
    #> FMA confidence intervals:
    #>
    #>               lower   upper
    #> (Intercept) -1.2284 -0.8856
    #> X1           0.2939  0.5937
    #> X2          -0.5260 -0.1530
    #> dose         0.5640  1.1317
    fit.ameras.percentile <- confint(fit.ameras2, type="percentile")
    #> FMA confidence intervals:
    #>
    #>               lower   upper
    #> (Intercept) -1.2290 -0.8860
    #> X1           0.2938  0.5935
    #> X2          -0.5250 -0.1518
    #> dose         0.5616  1.1298

    summary(fit.ameras.hpd)
    #> Call:
    #> ameras(formula = Y.binomial ~ dose(V1:V10, model = "ERR") + X1 +
    #>     X2, data = data, family = "binomial", methods = c("FMA"))
    #>
    #> Rows: 3000
    #>
    #> Total CPU runtime: 0.9 seconds
    #>
    #> CPU runtime in seconds by method:
    #>
    #>  Method   Fit    CI Total
    #>     FMA 0.839 0.014 0.853
    #>
    #> Summary of coefficients by method:
    #>
    #>  Method        Term Estimate      SE CI.lower CI.upper
    #>     FMA (Intercept)  -1.0576 0.08770  -1.2284  -0.8856
    #>     FMA          X1   0.4429 0.07652   0.2939   0.5937
    #>     FMA          X2  -0.3378 0.09572  -0.5260  -0.1530
    #>     FMA        dose   0.8447 0.14494   0.5640   1.1317
    summary(fit.ameras.percentile)
    #> Call:
    #> ameras(formula = Y.binomial ~ dose(V1:V10, model = "ERR") + X1 +
    #>     X2, data = data, family = "binomial", methods = c("FMA"))
    #>
    #> Rows: 3000
    #>
    #> Total CPU runtime: 0.8 seconds
    #>
    #> CPU runtime in seconds by method:
    #>
    #>  Method   Fit    CI Total
    #>     FMA 0.839 0.009 0.848
    #>
    #> Summary of coefficients by method:
    #>
    #>  Method        Term Estimate      SE CI.lower CI.upper
    #>     FMA (Intercept)  -1.0576 0.08770  -1.2290  -0.8860
    #>     FMA          X1   0.4429 0.07652   0.2938   0.5935
    #>     FMA          X2  -0.3378 0.09572  -0.5250  -0.1518
    #>     FMA        dose   0.8447 0.14494   0.5616   1.1298