Overview

MultiATSM is an R package for estimating, analyzing, and forecasting multi-country macro-finance affine term structure models (ATSMs). The package implements a variety of models, including JPS, GVAR, and JLL frameworks (see complete references below), and provides tools for bias correction, bootstrap analysis, and graphical/numerical outputs.

Features

• Estimation of multi-country ATSMs (JPS, 2014, JLL, 2015, GVAR, 2023-2024, and variants)
• Flexible input structure for macroeconomic and yield data
• Graphical and numerical outputs for model diagnostics and interpretation
• Bias correction for a VAR dynamics (BRW, 2012)
• Bootstrap analysis for confidence intervals
• Out-of-sample forecasting

Installation

You can install the development version of MultiATSM from GitHub with:

# install.packages("devtools")
devtools::install_github("rubensmoura87/MultiATSM")

You can also get the official release version from CRAN

install.packages("MultiATSM")

Usage and documentation

• See the package manual and vignettes for detailed function documentation and examples.
• Main functions: InputsForOpt, Bias_Correc_VAR, Optimization, NumOutputs, Bootstrap, ForecastYields, etc.

More information about {MultiATSM}

You can learn more about the underlying models in the working paper published in the LIDAM-LFIN Series..

References

• Bauer, M. D., Rudebusch, G. D., & Wu, J. C. (2012). Correcting estimation bias in dynamic term structure models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 30(3), 454-467.

• Candelon, B., & Moura, R. (2023). Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets. Economic Modelling, 127, 106453.

• Candelon, B., & Moura, R. (2024). A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 22(5), 1558-1587.

• Joslin, S., Priebsch, M., & Singleton, K. J. (2014). Risk premiums in dynamic term structure models with unspanned macro risks. The Journal of Finance, 69(3), 1197-1233.

• Joslin, S., Singleton, K. J., & Zhu, H. (2011). A new perspective on Gaussian dynamic term structure models. The Review of Financial Studies, 24(3), 926-970.

• Jotikasthira, C., Le, A., & Lundblad, C. (2015). Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?. Journal of Financial Economics, 115(1), 58-83.

• See also the references in the package documentation.